The U.S. Needs Oil Now and Will Need it Later

As gas prices climb even higher, one must really wonder what is driving this almost daily ramp up. Many speculate that it is the old "supply and demand" theory but a growing number are looking at the rise in investors' speculation on crude oil futures. If that is the cause, then I am waiting for the bubble to eventually burst and the oil market to crash. Certainly the market cannot keep up with this continuous rise in West Texas light sweet crude. Similar to the housing bubble where prices rose to almost ridiculous levels, and where it surprised almost no economist when the housing market slid precipitously, the oil run-up may well be headed for a crash.

I don't know if a similar burst bubble in oil will hurt the country as the mortgage debacle has or if it will just hurt those who took advantage of the artificial (my opinion) upswing. I suspect the latter so I, for one, am patiently waiting for those speculators to finally get their due.

But what if it is supply and demand? What if the U.S. cannot keep up with demand except by sending our money to foreign soil to feed our oil addiction? Some say demand is actually down with these high prices. The liberals may be not so secretly tittering about how we should have listened over the past years and worked harder to develop wind, solar and other green technologies. Now that the crunch is on, we can speculate that research has been redoubled to find a car battery that will power the nation's fleet economically. I do see more wind turbines going up around the country and certainly solar panels sales must be up.

But that is not enough. We may be a nation "addicted" to oil - no, we ARE a nation addicted to oil and that is not going to change anytime soon. There are millions of cars and trucks on the road that will continue to need gasoline for some time. And not many airplanes will be able to fly on solar or wind energy. Not many of our freight trains and our trucking fleet will be able to convert to electric motors any time soon.

So we must begin searching for more oil in our own country. If the oil drilling technologies have been improved to not let the environment be savaged as was once thought, then we need to begin offshore drilling for those millions, if not billions, of untapped oil. We must at least reconsider ANWR drilling to tap that vast reserve. Mr. Obama and others spout that even if we started today, it would be five or seven years before the first barrel was in the pipeline. Well, it may be five or seven years from whenever we start, so why delay the start? Why not start to free ourselves from the hold that our enemies think they have on us?

Why not move toward oil self-sufficiency on a parallel path with renewable energies? With proper government incentives, the "big oil" companies can start to drill, start to build new refineries, and start to move to the next generation of energy production. Most oil companies are looking ahead and seeing the day when oil will not be king; when more and more vehicles will use less oil-based fuel. But that day is not close enough to wait it out, to let our people pay these terribly high gas prices for decades before there is some relief.

I, and others who know far more than I do, predict that once the road is cleared to offshore and ANWR drilling, then we will see prices begin to fall. It will not take five or seven years for oil futures to begin to recede if not plummet. They will drop the day the congress approves, as the President did, the drilling for oil off our coasts.

I don't relish seeing oil platforms in pristine waters or drill rigs in the Arctic. But few people would ever see those things (ANWR is so pristine because no one is there to see anything). Does anyone really think that these wind farms with their humming turbines are things of beauty?

Green folk are, of course, worried that if the pressure is off once oil flows more freely, the efforts for wind, solar, and the like will ease off. I don't think so. I think the die is cast and the U.S. need for oil will slowly lessen. I am less sure of the new China and India who will need oil many years beyond us as they begin their own "industrial revolution". All the more reason to tap our vast stores of oil now while at the same time working to decrease the need for those fossil fuels that we know will eventually run out. I hope we win the race before they do.