Friday, August 15, 2008

Russia - A Not So New "Rogue" Nation?

With the not-so-subtle invasion of Georgia by Russia, the first thought that came to mind was Iraq's attack on Kuwait. A well-funded militarized nation leading an incursion into a far weaker country - just because it could. The U.S. response was swift and decisive and the Iraqi military faded faster than my last tan.

Now we have Russia, a nation that never could quite be trusted to be a full partner in the fellowship of responsible nations, as the overwhelming aggressor with very weak justification for its actions. The U.S. and the European Union has now harrumphed a number of times, threatening this and that, and getting only lip service from the Russian leadership who stall more each day. I wasn't around back then but I do recall reading that Hitler made some of the same moves in the late 1930s on Poland. He was joined then by the Soviet Union in this illegal foray as well. Once he got away with that piece of business, he was on to Norway and Denmark in 1940.

Europe stepped up and eventually declared war but the United Kingdom and the United States did not seem to think this conflict worthy of investment quite yet. England's Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, still bears the mantle of appeaser. FDR was less the culprit because the fight was nowhere near our shores, but decided to come to the party later.

I know that there is always a danger if drawing these analogies or parallels because they never quite fit exactly. But we have to ask if they fit close enough to worry not just for Georgia, but for the future if the rest of the world lets this invasion stand with little or no consequences.

Not bringing our ships to the pond to play war games may not be enough sanction to make Russia step back and say, "Whoa, we done wrong. We need to play well with others, at least to put on a good face so that they can see into our soul".

It is bad enough that Russia made the move, but to then pretend to accede to a cease-fire and agree to a pull back while still moving deeper into Georgia is as disingenuous as it is reckless. And it is reckless only if there is a consequence that will make a difference. So far there seems to be none.

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